Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 2.356179 2.497232 2.651203 2.833574 3.046222 3.289736 3.595002
2025-09-07 2.220751 2.398267 2.600805 2.853632 3.168103 3.557736 4.098327
2025-09-14 2.070022 2.257016 2.475341 2.755760 3.117663 3.588094 4.286161
2025-09-21 1.990992 2.189907 2.427149 2.740243 3.159284 3.731678 4.646746
2025-09-28 1.909897 2.112951 2.358619 2.688933 3.142566 3.785335 4.875088
2025-10-05 1.887321 2.104754 2.373112 2.743639 3.272129 4.064304 5.544512
2025-10-12 1.879056 2.112520 2.406582 2.824062 3.444594 4.437155 6.538398
2025-10-19 1.836185 2.073296 2.375262 2.810629 3.473193 4.575154 7.109503
2025-10-26 1.804292 2.046210 2.357765 2.814161 3.526221 4.762271 7.901084
2025-11-02 1.752488 1.990896 2.299297 2.753967 3.470571 4.737065 8.099843
2025-11-09 1.718827 1.957976 2.269516 2.733512 3.476897 4.830280 8.715530
2025-11-16 1.688974 1.928840 2.243370 2.716332 3.486058 4.928886 9.429320
2025-11-23 1.659446 1.900201 2.218108 2.701098 3.500708 5.049500 10.399054
2025-11-30 1.643633 1.888948 2.215972 2.719930 3.574591 5.311271 12.422664
2025-12-07 1.594721 1.831741 2.147257 2.632440 3.452251 5.105784 11.687562
2025-12-14 1.572084 1.809367 2.126903 2.619090 3.462172 5.210879 12.989176
2025-12-21 1.540470 1.774001 2.086988 2.573239 3.409467 5.158367 13.217495
2025-12-28 1.540478 1.781372 2.107781 2.623443 3.536770 5.572084 18.537339
2026-01-04 1.547244 1.797934 2.142053 2.696795 3.716052 6.188290 39.088753
2026-01-11 1.529319 1.779819 2.125084 2.685272 3.726934 6.328350 63.698256
2026-01-18 1.516629 1.768583 2.117723 2.689052 3.768637 6.576123 NaN
2026-01-25 1.488481 1.735213 2.076828 2.635090 3.687290 6.405720 489.636521
2026-02-01 1.471306 1.716849 2.057703 2.617039 3.679612 6.481205 NaN